Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
