A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
